Predicting Ionospheric TEC with Time Series Model

WU Wen-Jun^1,3, LI Zhi-gang¹ , YANG Xu-hai¹, CHENG Zong-yi^1,2, WANG Xiao-han⁴

（1. National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710600, China;

 2. Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200030,China;

3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;

4. The Unit 61541 of  PLA, Beijing 100094, China）

 

Abstract：Taking the ionospheric TEC（total electron content）data released by IGS（international GPS service）for the sample, the ionospheric TEC for the whole world is predicted by using the time series model. Different order-determining rules can lead to different predicted results in the time series prediction model; It has been proved by test that the BIC order-determining rule used in this paper is suitable for realizing the TEC prediction. The results show that for the prediction period of ten days or so, the relative precision of the TEC calculated with the time series model is high and the gird nodes, for which the relative precision of the predicted TEC is better than 60%, amount to 90 percent of the total gird nodes.